Greater Vancouver – broad market conditions.
Total residential sales in Greater Vancouver hit 1,959 in August, down 14% from July’s 2,286 transactions. This marks a sharp monthly decline from the 2025 peak in July. Compared to August 2024 though, sales were slightly higher – up 3% – but compared to August 2023, they were down 15%. Does anyone want to try and predict the fall market?
Greater Vancouver sales in August were 19% below the ten-year average, off from July at 14% below the ten-year average, but still better than June at 26% below the ten-year average and May at 30% below the ten-year average. While a slower month than July, it is still an improvement, another indication that buyers were far more active in August than the numbers showed.
Greater Vancouver townhome sales in August were up 10% compared to August last year, while condos sales were down again at 5% below last year, but better than June at 16% down year-over-year. Detached sales had a better month at 12% above August 2024 sales levels.
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Heading into fall, the question is whether activity will pick up with the traditional September listing wave, or whether buyers will remain cautious in the face of stalled interest rate cuts and economic uncertainty.
Kevin Skipworth
Dexter Realty
Listings were a mixed bag.
Inventory continued to shift. Active listings sat at 16,242 when the month ended, up 18% from last year’s 13,812, but down 5% from July’s 17,168. Meanwhile, new listings plunged: just 4,306 were added in August, a 25% drop from July and a striking 36% fewer than May. Still, compared to last year, new listings were modestly higher, up 3% year-over-year and 7% higher than 2023.
On balance, the region remains firmly in this buyer’s market. Months of supply held at eight, well above the four to six range that typically signals balance. The sales-to-listings ratio improved to 45% from 40% in July, but that number is less encouraging than it appears as much of the “gain” came from fewer new listings rather than stronger buyer demand.
The number of new listings in August were only 1% above the ten-year average after July was 12% above the ten-year average and June at 12%.
Did the end of August bring better news to ease anxiety for buyers and sellers? Canada did announce that they would remove retaliatory tariffs on US imports as they continue to negotiate a trade agreement – although retaliatory tariffs still exist on steel, aluminum and automobiles. The Canadian government reiterated that the overall effective tariff rate on Canada is around 5%. Economic growth forecasts came in below expected levels, although the Bank of Canada seems to think it is in line with where they thought it would be. Inflation came in lower as well.
All told, this could leave the door open to a rate cut by the Bank of Canada when they next get together this month. But after significant rate cuts since hitting the recent peak, that should not be what buyers need to wait for. It may just be that buyers have been looking for the signal to jump back into the market and with prices having steadily come down over the last three years, it may just be that time.
Sometimes seen as the bell weather for the market, Vancouver West showed signs of strength in August when most other areas were quiet. While sales fell to 381 units, they were only down 4% from July and 9% from June. Well below the average in Greater Vancouver and significantly less than the decline in some of the other Metro municipalities. Compared to last year, activity was stronger than in 2024 with sales up 13%.
Active listings ended at 3,015, up 5% from last year, but down 8% from July. Again, it is much better than the regional average. New supply tightened: just 768 homes came to market in August, down 25% from July and 40% from May. Despite fewer listings, conditions stayed tilted toward buyers with eight months of supply in Vancouver’s Westside. The sales-to-listings ratio improved sharply to 50%, up from July’s 39%, showing that homes listed in August moved relatively well.
Over on Vancouver’s Eastside, sales were softer, landing at 219, down 10% from July and 18% from June. Compared to last year, the Eastside showed a mixed picture: up 13% from 2024, but down 12% from 2023. Inventory reached 1,599 listings, 14% higher than last year, while new listings were down sharply from spring but still up 21% year-over-year.
The summer slowdown hit North Vancouver harder than most. Sales dropped to 139, a steep 27% decline from July and 30% below June but only slightly down from August 2024 total sales of 145. The once inventory starved market has seen an increase of 39% year-over-year to 938 listings, though that was 9% fewer than July. New listings at 304 were sharply lower month-to-month but still higher than both 2024 (+13%) and 2023 (+19%). Months of supply rose to seven from five, shifting the balance in buyers’ favour.
Fraser Valley.
The Fraser Valley mirrored Greater Vancouver’s slowdown but at an even steeper pace. Sales dropped 22% from July and 13% from last year.
New listings fell 19% month-over-month, holding almost flat year-over-year. Total inventory ended at 10,445, down from July but still 21% higher than August 2024. Months of supply climbed to 11, cementing the buyer’s market.
Takeaways.
- Momentum slowed in August: was this just the usual summer being a distraction?
- Inventory is up year-over-year but tightening month-to-month, mostly because fewer new listings are coming onto the market.
- Buyers hold the advantage: with most submarkets showing seven to 11 months of supply, buyers have negotiating power and are mostly dictating terms.
- Prices continue to soften, with August marking another month of incremental declines almost everywhere.
- Pockets of resilience exist: Maple Ridge, Ladner and Tsawwassen saw relative strength, showing that demand is still present where affordability is better or lifestyle drivers are stronger.
Outlook.
Heading into fall, the question is whether activity will pick up with the traditional September listing wave, or whether buyers will remain cautious in the face of stalled interest rate cuts and economic uncertainty. There is every reason for buyers to jump back into the market and after eight years of below average sales save for the brief COVID and low interest rate surge, there is tremendous pent-up demand. It’s only a matter of time before it enters the market.
