With interest rates finally coming down – the latest drop came January 29th – it is setting up for a return to normal in the real estate market. Will that be affected with the back and forth talk of tariff wars? British Columbia does have the least exposure to US tariffs compared to the rest of Canada, which is a positive for our economy. When the Bank of Canada next meets on March 12th, they will have a big decision to make: just how much of a cut to their interest rate will they need to make depending on where the trade talk goes in one month?
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So many want to move, and so many need to move. Will they be able to put the latest noise behind them?
Kevin Skipworth
Dexter Realty
Sales saw a dip in January versus December, but were higher than January 2024.
There were 1,552 properties sold in Greater Vancouver in January, after 1,765 properties sold in December, 2,181 properties sold in November, 2,632 properties sold in October, and 1,852 sold in September. The market buzz to start 2025 was certainly more positive than the last two years with multiple offers occurring, some listings moving within a week from coming on and higher traffic at open houses and showings. The pent-up demand seemed to be emerging as anticipated after a more than two-year hiatus due to higher interest rates.
Greater Vancouver home sales in January were 9% higher compared to the 1,427 properties sold in January 2024 and were a 51% increase from the 1,030 sales in January 2023. In fact, looking back at 2017 through to 2020, sales were 1,553, 1,846, 1,120 and 1,602 respectively in those years for the month of January. The month of January is typically a slow month for real estate activity, so it’s not unusual to see the levels we saw this past month. With the political distractions abroad and at home, there continues to be a significant number of buyers and sellers ready for the right moment to jump into the market.
Greater Vancouver sales in January were 29% below the ten-year average, compared to December which was 12% below the ten-year average and November sales at 13% below the ten-year average. Only three of those years experienced sales over 2,000 for the month of January, so taking out those years would put the average at 1,447 homes sold. We’ll see an acceleration in home sales as we move through the spring, even with trade-related distractions. Lower interest rates – and more rate reductions to come, buyers ready to move and sellers waiting on lower rates to make a move will all push activity.
Listings spiked in January.
On the listing side sellers were very active in January with 5,644 new listings in Greater Vancouver. This was well above the 1,737 new listings in December, 50% more than November and 2% higher than October. Year-over-year, there were 46% more new listings than in January 2024 and 67% more than in January 2023.
A number of these new listings were likely properties that came off the market in late 2024 or ones where the listing was cancelled and relisted at a new price. In some cases, those new listing prices were higher as perhaps some sellers expected to see a better market in 2025.
The number of new listings in January were 30% above the ten-year average, after December was right at the ten-year average, November 5% above the ten-year average and October 20% above the ten-year average.
Sellers were ready for January more so than we’ve seen in the last ten years with this being the highest number of new listings for the month of January in Greater Vancouver since 2012 and the third highest total for the month going back to 1997. This can only serve to help buyers who are looking to take advantage of decreasing interest rates.
Active listings rose.
There were 11,494 active listings in Greater Vancouver at month end, compared to 10,948 at the end of December and 9,600 to start the month. After several listings expired at the end of December many came back on in January, together with others that were taken off the market in December. The month end active listing count was 33% higher than the total at the end of January 2024 which was a spike from being 24% year-over-year at the end of December.
We’ll likely see the active listing count grow quickly through the spring market as sellers engage more than buyers in the near term. But should interest rates fall quickly, expect buyers to engage at a much quicker pace. The future is about to be written, and the plot could be much different than what was forecast at the end of 2024.
Months of supply increased to seven months from six in Greater Vancouver due to a much higher number of listings coming on. The detached market in Greater Vancouver is up to 11 months supply, compared to eight months supply in December, while townhomes jumped to five months from four and condos went up to six months from five. Townhomes continue to be the most competitive type of property to get into based on the lack of supply for those types of homes. North Vancouver and Port Coquitlam remain in a seller’s market with only four months of supply in both those cities, with there only being one month of supply of townhomes and two months supply of condos in Port Coquitlam.
Townhome sales in January for the region were up 12% compared to January last year, while condos sales were up 13% year-over-year. With detached sales the same as January last year, pricing was important as buyers sought lower price points to start the year. Townhome inventory overall was up 39% year-over year, while condo inventory was up 37% and detached homes were up 28%.
A new year, and new distractions. So far, this decade continues to provide a yearly dose of interference in real estate. Just when we thought 2025 was going to be a year of normalizing interest rates, politics jumped back into the mix and gave buyers and sellers something else to think about. So many want to move, and so many need to move. Will they be able to put the latest noise behind them? Some will, and perhaps further interest rate stimulus will give buyers the push they need to engage in the market. And with a greater number of listings coming back on, the predictions of more sales in 2025 may just come to fruition.
