Moving to politics in our country, we can expect a whole host of promises to come this month as the Conservatives and Liberals try to sway voters their way. Housing will be a hot topic for both parties as they try to convince Canadians they have a better model for easing affordability and supply issues in Canadian markets. GST cuts have been promised on new homes, capital gains relief and boosting supply through higher construction targets. Expect some of this might stick when a new government is formed. Whichever party forms the government, hopefully they realize that investment in Canada is going to be a key piece moving forward. If we want capital to come to Canada, we need to incentivize it, and the housing market is one avenue that needs to be considered.
There were 2,091 properties sold in Greater Vancouver in March, after 1,827 properties sold in February, 1,552 properties sold in January, 1,765 properties sold in December and 2,181 properties sold in November. Spring break and tariff talk held back buyer activity in March, and while spring break typically keeps buyers preoccupied, it was mostly the uncertainty of tariffs that continued to affect buyers. Perhaps the noise will quiet down enough to bring more buyers back. They are certainly out there and just needing a reason to jump back into the market. The Bank of Canada is doing their part. The campaign promises in Canada could also help kick start buyers.
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With stable mortgage delinquency rates, balanced conditions and potential interest rate declines, this may be one of the best opportunities for buyers in recent years.
Kevin Skipworth
Dexter Realty
Sales were up compared to the past few months, but down year-over-year.
Greater Vancouver home sales, while up over the last three months, were below the total sales for the last two years in March. This was not unexpected though and while lower, there is still an opportunity to see an improvement in April. Sales in March were down 13% compared to March 2024 with 2,415 homes sold and down from March 2023 which saw 2,535 sales. This is the second straight month that sales lagged the previous year after January was 9% higher compared to the 1,427 properties sold in January 2024 and a 51% increase from the 1,030 sales in January 2023. Without tariff talk, this would be a completely different real estate market and it could be going forward – but in a positive direction. Buyers enjoy the moment, because it won’t last. Heading east, the Fraser Valley region saw sales in March down 26% compared to March 2024 after being down 27% year-over-year in February.
Greater Vancouver sales in March were 35% below the ten-year average compared to February at 39% below the 10-year average and January where sales were 29% below the ten-year average. This was the second lowest total sales for the month of March going back to 1986, with March 2019 being the lowest at 1,743 sales that year. Given how much more is happening this March with the political uncertainty, it’s encouraging that sales for this March were higher than 2019.
Greater Vancouver sellers were much more active in March compared to buyers. There were 6,565 new listings in March compared with 5,163 new listings in February. And with sales levels still lagging this past month, the absorption rate of new listings dropped in March with 32% of new listings being purchased, compared to 35% in February and 47% in March 2024. That percentage favours buyers that are serious in this market as it allows the inventory of homes available to grow and thus provide much more opportunity for buyers to negotiate on the home they want. Other than the super heated market of 2021 and 2022, the number of new listings for the month of March haven’t been that high since 2010 and 2011. New listings in March this year were significantly higher compared to the 5,112 and 4,427 in March 2024 and 2023, respectively.
Listings exceeded the ten-year average, but stayed below all-time highs.
The number of new listings in March were 15% above the ten-year average, compared with February which were 12% above the ten-year average and January which saw the number of new listings 30% above the ten-year average. With total listings well below the all-time highs, it is keeping the real estate market in a balanced to borderline buyer’s market.
Owning real estate is still a sound investment. And don’t listen to the news stories that mortgage delinquencies are on the rise. In British Columbia, mortgages in arrears are only 0.19% of all mortgages. That’s seven times lower than the United States. So, that’s not driving listings counts. And with BC lower than the national rate of delinquency, we won’t be seeing any real uptick in distressed home sales.
There were 14,546 active listings in Greater Vancouver at month end, compared to 12,744 at the end of February. Total active listings are up from 10,552 at the end of March last year, a 38% increase year-over-year. This year-over-year increase was almost as high as what we saw between March 2018 and 2019 – the highest going back to over 30 years. Finally, buyers have choice and opportunity. With lower interest rates and less competition for now, this is the best buying opportunity we’ve seen in some time.
It’s buyer’s markets across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
Months of supply remained at seven months in Greater Vancouver due to the uptick in sales and despite higher inventory numbers. The detached market in Greater Vancouver bumped up to ten from nine months supply, while townhomes stayed at five months and condos also held, staying at six months. Townhomes will continue to be undersupplied in the market, especially in Greater Vancouver as land prices make it more challenging to develop. In the Fraser Valley, months of supply is at nine, while detached is at ten months supply, townhomes are at five months and condos are at seven months.
With the push for more purpose-built rental buildings over the last few years, there are fewer new strata ownership units being built which will keep supply constrained in the coming years. Even with the increase in listings and slower activity, what’s most affordable is still the hardest to get into. This could be the opportunity for the presale market to jump back into the picture, with the help of higher GST exemptions for buyers and the promise of lower development costs charges by the Federal Liberals.
Greater Vancouver townhome sales in March were down 4% compared to March last year, while condos sales were down 10% year-over-year. Detached sales struggled the most in March, down 24% from March last year. Townhome inventory overall was up 39% year-over year compared to 34% at the end of February, while condo inventory climbed to 42% above March 2024 after being up 37% in February year-over-year. Detached homes were up 33% year-year-year, compared to 27% at the end of February above the previous year. Over in the Fraser Valley, detached home inventory is up 51% year-over-year while townhome inventory is up 72% and condo inventory is up 67%. Buyers have even greater opportunities in the Fraser Valley. Expect to see sales increase in the coming months.
The Greater Vancouver real estate market is showing resilience despite recent political and economic uncertainties. With the US tariff announcement bringing clarity and the CUSMA trade agreement mostly upheld, confidence could begin to return. While sales in March remained below last year’s levels, they have been gradually increasing over the past three months, and an influx of new listings is giving buyers more choices and negotiating power. Political parties in Canada are focusing on housing policies, which could further support the market. With stable mortgage delinquency rates, balanced conditions and potential interest rate declines, this may be one of the best opportunities for buyers in recent years.
