Fall 2024 has felt somewhat turbulent, with elections on both sides of the border adding to the buzz. Before elections, there’s often a sense that big shifts are on the horizon. But as soon as the votes are counted, life usually settles back to normal almost instantly.
Amid all the noise, how we choose to respond is entirely within our control. Once the noise fades, it’s the fundamentals that guide us. In real estate, these fundamentals – such as interest rates, housing starts, immigration and housing policies – serve as true anchors. Now that the provincial elections are behind us locally, we can begin to envision what the next four years may mean for us individually.
In October, as the market regained stability, buyers returned with enthusiasm, pushing sales of newer homes in tracked Metro Vancouver markets up by nearly 50% compared to the same period last year. Sales in entry-level single-family and townhome markets surged by 110% and 114%, while the one- and two-bedroom condo markets saw increases of 36% and 29%, respectively.
The newer condo market, which offers some of the most attainable homeownership opportunities in Metro Vancouver, will be interesting to watch in the months ahead. The current balance in the one- and two-bedroom condo segments may soon shift, as rate decreases unlock demand among first-time homebuyers, investors and move-up buyers.
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While a single month of growth doesn’t establish a trend, it is the first step toward one. If October’s momentum continues, we could be on the cusp of an exciting new phase in the market.
Manraj Dosanjh
Dexter Realty
Meanwhile, in the presale market, developers are delaying sales launches until the new year in anticipation of a more favorable outlook. Since presale activity typically lags behind the resale market, spring 2025 could bring renewed optimism if resale activity continues to gain momentum. However, these delays may lead to significant supply challenges down the line, potentially resulting in fewer housing starts in the near term.
This slowdown in new supply could impact the market longer term: as mortgage rates decline and demand rises without a corresponding increase in inventory, upward pressure on prices may build in the years to come. With new governments in place and fresh expectations from their constituents, there’s an opportunity for policymakers to balance politics with practical solutions that promote new housing inventory.
While a single month of growth doesn’t establish a trend, it is the first step toward one. If October’s momentum continues, we could be on the cusp of an exciting new phase in the market.
Townhomes surged.
Newer townhome sales in October 2024 surged by an impressive 114% compared to the same period last year. Active listings have also increased by nearly 100% during that time.
South Surrey and Willoughby, Langley, lead the market in sales growth year-over-year. Along with Coquitlam and East Vancouver, these areas represent the strongest markets favoring sellers, as demand continues to outpace supply.
Westside Vancouver saw just one townhome sale in October, with a median list price of $1.78 million. Affordability remains a significant roadblock in this market.
In October 2024, newer median townhome sale prices ranged from $883,000 in South Surrey to $1.9 million in Westside Vancouver.
One-bedroom condos saw increased sales.
Newer one-bedroom condo sales increased by 14% over the month and by 36% compared to October 2023. Coquitlam saw the strongest surge in one-bedroom condo sales year-over-year, with a 150% increase, selling at a median price of $590,000.
South Surrey, Willoughby and Coquitlam continue to experience seller’s market conditions, with demand outpacing supply. All three markets are ideal for presale investment, as new inventory is both needed and welcomed.
In October, prices for newer one-bedroom condos ranged from $445,000 in Surrey City Centre to as high as $677,000 in North Vancouver.
Two-bedroom condos picked up the pace.
The newer two-bedroom condo market saw a 20% increase in sales from the previous month and a 29% increase compared to October 2023.
Surrey City Centre saw the highest year-over-year sales growth, with a 367% increase in homes sold, along with a 100% jump in sales from the previous month. The amount of available inventory in Surrey City Centre also remained relatively flat over the year, suggesting that the market is close to stabilizing.
The Surrey City Centre market is poised to play a key role in the region, offering the most affordable condo supply along the SkyTrain line. With Millennials and Gen Z entering their real estate purchasing years, this area is primed for investment and growth, while also establishing its new, youthful identity.
In October, median sale prices for newer two-bedroom condos ranged from $625,750 in Surrey City Centre to $1.19 million in Downtown Vancouver.
Single-family homes saw some big jumps, but remained modest overall.
Sales of newer, entry-level single-family homes surged in October 2024, rising 110% year-over-year and nearly 30% from the previous month. Surrey, South Surrey and Coquitlam saw the strongest annual sales growth, with increases of 300% and 200% in Surrey and Coquitlam, respectively.
Almost 50% of October’s total sales occurred in the Fraser Valley, which is the only area where the median list price for newer, entry-level single-family homes remains under $2 million.
Sale prices in October 2024 ranged from $1.55 million in Surrey to $3.46 million on Vancouver's Westside.
With rising prices and high interest rates creating significant entry barriers, single-family home sales remain modest. This dynamic pushes many potential buyers to consider more affordable options, ultimately driving up townhome prices across the region.
Reasons why you should consider newer-home resale data:
- Facilitates wise choices in new pre-sale purchases by providing valuable comparables, offering insights into product considerations for both personal use and investment.
- Great for those looking to purchase housing that is still in the early stages of its lifecycle – this means less repairs & maintenance during the first few years of ownership.
- More recent building and developer history – provides assurance and certainty when making one of the most important transactions of your life.
- Homes include some of the latest design and technology – great for resale value.
- Monthly sales statistics crucial for evaluating and planning new housing developments.
- These figures are routinely used by industry stakeholders such as real estate developers to understand the value of land, and anticipated market values for newly completed homes.
Market Insights Report: October 2024
After multiple rate cuts and promised changes to mortgage rules, buyers finally seemed to make moves during October in Metro Vancouver’s real estate market. As has been said before, the overall message for buyers these days is “buy now or compete later.” Unpack all the details with Kevin Skipworth from Dexter Realty.
