The Fraser Valley has started to experience the slowdown in sales that's been affecting the Greater Vancouver MLS® market since April. Fraser Valley home sales were down for the second month in September, and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board calls it a "wait and see" approach by buyers.
After a year of speculation about if and when prices will fall, it's easy to see why buyers are uneasy, even in the more affordable and moderate markets within the FVREB.
Sales and Listings
In the three major residential categories, 723 MLS® properties changed hands in September. Detached houses made up 57.3 per cent of those sales, with townhouses and apartments about even at just over 21 per cent each.
Those sales numbers were unnaturally low for September. In fact the red line we've added to the graph shows that September's sales were more typical of December, usually the slowest month of the year.
Fraser Valley Real Estate Market, September 2012
New residential listings were up by 9.1 per cent over August, standard for September which is usually the second-most-active selling period of the year. But the active listings remained stable, increasing by just 0.9 per cent over August.
What's Up, What's Down - At a Glance Sept 2012/August 2012 Sept 2012/ Sept 2011 Overall Sales -20.1% -26.4% - Detached -20.2% -33.1% - Townhouse -26.2% -26.2% - Apartment -22.6% -16.3% New Listings +9.1% -3.1% Active Listings +0.9% +4.9%
Some segments of the market felt the sales downturn more than others, and it all depended on price.
MLS® Home Price Index - Benchmark Prices
Scott Olson, FVREB president, says, "Sales of more expensive homes single family detached have decreased disproportionately more than the sales of townhomes and apartments. In fact, apartment sales last month in Surrey, Langley and White Rock were higher or comparable to September of last year, keeping prices across the Fraser Valley resilient.
Fraser Valley MLS® Benchmark Prices, % Change Sept 2012 August 2012 Sept 2011 Detached $549,500 -0.3% +3.0% Townhouse $300,500 -0.8% -1.7% Apartment $206,600 +0.2% +4.1%
Backing up what Scott Olsen says, there's an interesting disconnect between the benchmark prices and median prices in detached houses. MLS® benchmark prices are a calculation to find the price of a typical home for a specific area and home type. Median prices show the mid-point sold price of all home sales within an area, so they're a quicker indicator of what's actually happening.
Median prices for detached houses were lower than benchmark prices everywhere except South Surrey White Rock. That indicates a couple of possibilities. Either buying activity is in the less expensive end of the spectrum or sold prices are starting to come down. Or both.
In the apartment category, though, median prices were higher than benchmark in Surrey Central, Surrey North, Langley and South Surrey White Rock, indicating a healthy continuing demand for condos in those areas.
Over the last three months, prices for all three residential property types combined have decreased by 0.4 per cent while year over year they've increased by 2.1 per cent.
You can read the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board's full breakdown of statistics here.
