"We typically see a slowdown just before the holidays," says Ron Todson, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Association, "and this year it started a little sooner, reflecting what we're seeing in our overall economy.
"Similar to last November, sales are hovering at about 14 per cent off normal levels, but so are new listings. They're down abut 7 per cent compared to the 10-year average, so what we're seeing is a slower but steady market keeping home prices in check and the average number of days to sale stable."
Sales and Listings
After a mini-spike in October, sales for detached, attached and condo properties fell off considerably in November. Overall, 864 homes sold, compared to 1102 in October. That number was still enough to beat the 2012 November total, but that's nothing to brag about.
The biggest drop-off was in condo sales. Only 154 condos changed hands last month, over one-third fewer than in October. Central Surrey was the only area that bucked that trend. MLS® condo sales there were up by 38.5 per cent.
As usual for the Fraser Valley, detached house sales were responsible for over half of the action: the 497 sales made up 57.5 per cent of all home sales in November.
What's Up, What's Down - At a Glance Nov/Oct 2013 Nov 2013/ Nov 2012 Overall Home Sales -21.6% +10.2% - Detached - 14.9 +10.2% - Townhouse -23.4% +20.3% - Apartment -35.8% -1.3% New Listings -23.7% +1.7% Active Listings -16.6% - 13.0%
The low sales are balanced by a lack of new listings, and consequently active listings have been dropping since May. The current sales-to-active-listings ratio is down from 14 per cent in October to 11 per cent, keeping the Fraser Valley a buyer's market.
The average number of days on market has remained stable: 57 days for detached houses, 58 days for townhouses and 78 days for apartments.
For local market details, see the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board statistics, broken down by community.
MLS® Benchmark Prices
While sales are slow and inventory is low, prices are moving very little. This is great news for potential first-time buyers because it means they can save more toward a down payment without worrying that prices will go up and leave them behind.
Fraser Valley MLS® Benchmark Prices, % Change Nov 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2012 Detached $550,300 -0.2% +1.0% Townhouse $292,400 -1.0% -2.2% Apartment $196,200 -1.7% -3.3%
An interesting new study by the Urban Futures Institute found that the cities in the Fraser Valley are outstripping the Greater Vancouver core cities when it comes to both population growth and new jobs. Suburban Futuressays:
Between 2001 and 2011 employment in the core grew by only ten percent (through the addition of 58,371 net new jobs), compared to 15 percent growth region-wide. Suburban employment, on the other hand, grew at two and a half times this pace, as employment in the region's suburbs (the other 16 major municipalities outside of the historical urban core) grew by 25 percent. Over this ten-year period the Lower Mainland's suburbs also added more jobs in absolute terms: the 77,110 net new jobs created throughout the suburbs was 32 percent more than the 58,371 added in the urban core. As a result of slower employment growth in the region's core, the core's share of total employment fell from 65 percent in 2001 to 61 percent in 2011.
Surrey added the most new jobs, growing from 89,625 in 2001 to 125,245 by 2011, a 40% growth rate. Langley and Chilliwack saw growth in the 30 per cent range.
The report concludes, "With most of the region's growth in employment and population occurring outside of the historical urban core over the past decade, reports of the death of the suburbs have been greatly exaggerated at le ast here in the Lower Mainland ."
All of this bodes well for the Fraser Valley real estate market.
You can view the full FVREB statistics package for November 2013 here. * FVREB's overall sales numbers include all types of property including commercial, agricultural and industrial. The statistics given in the tables above are strictly residential. See also:
