They say it will be a great season for the Fraser Valley's famous strawberries, but so far it's not as fruitful for Fraser Valley real estate.
Ron Todson calls it a "transitioning market."
As president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, he says, "We've seen a significant improvement in activity compared to last fall, but by historical standards we're lagging. Sales* are about 20 per cent lower than normal for this time of year, while the number of new listings coming on stream is right on average."
There's no mention of what the Fraser Valley real estate market is transitioning to, but significantly lower prices don't seem to be part of the picture. Not right away, at least.
Todson notes that, "In order for there to be significant downward pressure on home prices, you need to have a sustained period of time when the ratio of salestoactives is in the single digits and because that hasn't happened, prices are remaining relatively stable."
The sales-to-active-listings ratio has been in buyer's territory (under 15 per cent) for most of the last three years. It hasn't experienced a sustained dip below 10 per cent, but it did fall from 14 per cent in April to 13 per cent last month, the first time it's dropped since the market started picking up in January.
Sales and Listings
Fraser Valley MLS® home sales have been increasing every month this year since the end of January. But even at that, they were the lowest May totals since 2001, and year-to-date sales are down 17.2 per cent over the same period last year. This does not indicate a sizzling market.
Townhouse and apartment sales in most Fraser Valley markets increased from April. That confirms the CMHC's observation in its latest "Housing Now" report that "buyer demand in the (Lower Mainland) region has slightly shifted towards lower-priced townhomes and apartment condominiums."
That's interesting in the FVREB region, which includes Abbotsford, Mission, Surrey, Langley, North Delta and South Surrey/White Rock. Generally, the Fraser Valley is where people go to find a house they can afford. But compared to May last year, detached house sales are down 12.9 per cent, and compared to April they're also down, by 2.2 per cent.
What's Up, What's Down - At a Glance May / Apr 2013 May 2013/ May 2012 Overall Home Sales +1.3% -13.1% - Detached -2.2% -12.9% - Townhouse +6.6% -13.9% - Apartment +7.0% -12.6% New Listings +6.3% -4.1% Active Listings +6.7% - 0.8%
WhiteRock/South Surrey seemed to be the most active market, with townhouse sales up 35.5 per cent and apartment sales up 37.8 per cent. Detached house sales there were down 5 per cent over April, the smallest monthly drop of any area except for the much smaller market of Mission (where detached sales rose 12.5 per cent).
See detailed Fraser Valley Real Estate Board statistics, broken down by community.
MLS® Benchmark Prices
Benchmark prices, based on the price of a typical home for its neighbourhood, have hardly budged, despite the slowest sales in 12 years.
Fraser Valley MLS® Benchmark Prices, % Change May 2013 Apr 2013 May 2012 Detached $549,200 +0.3% +0.2% Townhouse $298,000 -0.4% -2.9% Apartment $203,400 -0.2% -0.1%
This sticky-price phenomenon has been going on since August 2012 when year-over-year sales started falling... and benchmark prices didn't. Median prices have also moved very little, so it doesn't really matter which measure you use.
* FVREB's overall sales numbers include all types of property including commercial, agricultural and industrial.
You can view the full FVREB statistics package for May 2013 here.
See also:
Greater Vancouver Real Estate Market: May 2013
