With Vancouver’s population predicted to grow by 43 per cent by 2041, the demand for housing will outpace this growth as demographic groups shift, according to a new report by Urban Futures.
Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is projected to grow by 1.05 million people over the next 28 years, from 2.44 million people today to 3.48 million by 2041, an increase of 43 per cent.
Accounting for 42 per cent of total population growth to 2041, the 65-plus age groups will comprise 23 per cent of the Vancouver CMA’s population by 2041, up from 14 per cent in 2013.
Urban Futures housing demand projection
Vancouver CMA is forecast to see household demand grow by 497,320 units over the next 28 years (see graph). Urban Futures reported that high rates of homeownership among the rapidly growing older age groups will see total housing demand outpace population growth over this period: the predicted 43 per cent growth in total population is expected to generate a 53 per cent increase in total housing demand in the region between 2013 and 2041.
Over the next 28 years, an additional 282,188 ground oriented units would need to be added to the region to accommodate projected occupancy demand by 2041, meaning ground-oriented housing would represent 57 per cent of the region’s 497,320 total additional units over this period.
Demand for apartments would account for the remaining 43 per cent of the region’s housing additions to 2041, with 215,131 new apartments required to accommodate projected demand.
Although ground-oriented housing is predicted to make up the majority of demand in 2041, the gap between demand for ground-oriented homes and apartments is forecast to narrow slightly, with apartments making up 40.7 per cent of demand in 2013.
To read the full report, click here.
