Forecast for 2017 is for residential transactions to fall 10% below last year’s, but still 19% above 10-year average
British Columbia home sales are on track to breach the 100,000 mark in 2017 for the third consecutive year, according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association’s (BCREA) 2017 Second Quarter Housing Forecast released June 19.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales across the province predicted to total 101,000 units by the end of the year – a drop of 10% from 2016’s record 112,209 sales, but 19.2% higher than the 10-year average of 84,700 units.
BCREA home sales forecast June '17
“The province is in its fourth year of above-trend economic growth,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA’s chief economist. “Strong employment growth, consumer confidence and an influx of interprovincial migrants are important drivers of the housing market this year.”
The BCREA’s report added, “In addition, with the millennial generation now entering their household forming years, the condominium market in major urban centres is experiencing pressure on supply.”
BCREA is predicting that the average MLS® residential price in the province will fall slightly, by 1.1%, to $683,500 this year, but then increase 5.2% to a record $719,100 in 2018.
The association said, “The [2017] decline in the provincial average price is largely due to rising demand for more affordable condominiums and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region.”
The forecast for average prices varies greatly when broken down by individual board area.
Greater Vancouver’s high-priced average homes are expected to see the biggest price-dampening this year, forecast to decline 3.6% compared with 2016’s record levels, before then recovering to new highs by increasing 4.2% next year. Fraser Valley is expected to follow a similar but lesser pattern, first dropping 1.5% in average home price this year and then gaining 2.8% in 2018.
At the other end of the scale, Victoria and Vancouver Island are predicted to continue their accelerated trajectory. Their average home prices are forecast to rise by 12.1% and 9.6% respectively this year, and then grow further by 1.2% and 4% respectively next year.
To read the full provincial price and home sales forecast, click here.
