The Fraser Valley is stealing home buyers from Greater Vancouver.
According to the CMHC's brand-new Fall 2012 Housing Market Outlook, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board has gained market share on the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Last year, REBGV-area MLS® sales made up 69 per cent of all sales within the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area. This year, its market share was down by 4 per cent, which the Fraser Valley picked up.
The conclusion? "The distribution of home sales this year suggests a shift in homebuyer interest from premium markets to more modestly priced home markets," says the CMHC report.
CMHC predicts that the trend will continue into 2013, taking Fraser Valley real estate back into a balanced market, with sales increasing 1.4 per cent next year and prices stabilizing after a 3.6 per cent dip this year.
Meanwhile, "Economists at the British Columbia Real Estate Association have predicted that sales in the Fraser Valley will rebound by 6 per cent in 2013 compared to 2012, while prices will remain flat."
Those are the predictions. What actually went on last month in the Fraser Valley real estate market?
MLS® Sales and Listings
Scott Olson, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, summed it up: "Our sales increased at the same time as our inventory dropped, improving our supply-demand conditions."
October's MLS® sales were 22.9 per cent higher than September's, although they were down 7.6 per cent from October 2011 sales. With no surge of new listings, active listings dropped 3 per cent from September and remain at the same level as last October.
What's Up, What's Down - At a Glance Oct 2012/Sept 2012 Oct 2012/ Oct 2011 Overall Sales +22.9% -7.6% - Detached +28.3% -7.3% - Townhouse +34.8% -4.6% - Apartment +13.0% -16.7% New Listings -0.9% +0.4% Active Listings -2.9% +0.5%
The CMHC report says that detached houses accounted for 55 per cent of all MLS® sales in the Fraser Valley, while in the REBGV area, 40 per cent were detached houses. It notes that in Abbotsford and the District of Mission, multiple -family construction is slowing while more single-family homes are being built. So the trend of buyers moving to the Fraser Valley in order to afford a detached house continues.
And that comes down to the difference in prices. As the CMHC report observed, at $602,633, the average price for a single-detached home in the Fraser Valley is just over half the price of the same thing in Greater Vancouver ($1,120,411).
MLS® Home Price Index & Benchmark Prices
October benchmark prices continued to fall slightly.
As Scott Olson says, "Over the last three months we've seen the impact of lower sales and higher selection on prices of typical homes in our region. In most communities and for most property types, home prices have slowly decreased in small increments month-over-month.
"This has resulted in buyers having more time to make a decision and sellers working diligently with their Real Estate Agent to understand the market and set prices accordingly. What's happened in October is good news for both."
Fraser Valley MLS® Benchmark Prices, % Change Oct 2012 Sept 2012 Oct 2011 Detached $546,900 -0.5% +2.5% Townhouse $297,100 -1.1% -2.2% Apartment $203,900 -1.5% +2.9%
According to the CMHC report, Fraser Valley MLS® home prices are forecast to stabilize next year following a modest decline in 2012.
You can read the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board's full breakdown of statistics here
You can read the full CMHC Housing Market Outlook here
See also:
Greater Vancouver Real Estate Market October 2012
